On The Record (10-06-26).
The Economy is a Giant Zit.
This week we diagnosed the economy as a giant zit—good numbers on the surface, all of it concentrated in AI investment and stock market gains for the top 10%, while wages fall below inflation, consumer confidence hits a 12-year low, and the 10-year Treasury just blew past its 2007 peak. Then we looked at what the pop actually looks like: a private credit unwind that drags the banks with it, a Fed that can’t buy its way out this time, and Scott Bessent left holding the bag. The Buffett Indicator is sitting at 235%. Maybe that’s why he retired...
Show Notes
Clips
Episode Timestamp + Link | Clip Link
- 00:01:57 | CBS Sunday Morning: Alan Alda on fighting Parkinson’s with laughter
- 00:02:42 | This Past Weekend w/ Theo Von: Zohran Mamdani
- 00:03:30 | NBC News: U.S. bombers scrambled out of U.K. airbase after threats
- 00:03:52 | CNBC TV-18: Pete Hegseth’s ‘Just Warriors’ Speech: ‘No Fatties, No Wimps, No Radicals’
- 00:04:27 | Bloomberg Television: Brazil Real Surges After Bolsonaro Takes Surprising Lead
- 00:04:57 | ABC News: US monitoring reported fatal case of pneumonic plague in Russia
- 00:21:26 | Democracy! Now: Lula vs. Bolsonaro (Again): Brazil’s Presidential Race Goes to Runoff as Right Wing Makes Gains
Resources
- WSWS.org: With complicity of media and Democrats, Trump prepares major escalation of Iran war
- ADP: National Employment Report
- Bureau of Economic Analysis: Personal Income and Outlays, August 2026
- The Conference Board: US Consumer Confidence
- U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics: Employment Situation Summary
- Steve Rattner on Substack
- Schwab: Fed Hikes in 12-0 Vote, Commits to Inflation Fight
- Bloomberg: Treasury 10-Year Yield Hits Highest Since 2002 on Rate Outlook
- Squire Patton Boggs: The Private Credit Market: The Data Behind the Headlines
- Federal Reserve: Monetary Policy Report – July 2026
- Federal Reserve Bank of New York: Remarks at 2026 U.S. Treasury Market Conference, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, New York City
- CNBC: Fed meeting recap: Warsh says inflation is still too high as Fed hikes for the first time since 2023
- Yahoo! Finance: Trump slams the Fed rate hike, says he told Warsh ‘you might as well vote with the board’
- CNBC: Warsh’s regime change at the Fed pushes ahead – and meets resistance
- CNBC: Warsh faces Fed independence test as Bessent moves in on central bank’s turf
- PWC: Private credit’s next phase — growth under pressure
- International Monetary Fund: Bank Lending to Nonbank Financial Institutions Continued To Increase Rapidly in 2025
- MacroMicro: US - Total Market Cap (% of GDP)
UNFTR Resources
UNFTR Quick Links