The Great Unwind.

The AI trade might have found its canary in the coal mine. Leopold Aschenbrenner—a 25-year-old former OpenAI researcher built Situational Awareness into one of the hottest funds on Wall Street by betting long on the construction and infrastructure side of AI (Micron, CoreWeave) and short on the chips and software everyone else was chasing (Nvidia, Broadcom, Oracle). Then July happened, prime brokers made margin calls, and his entire public stock book got liquidated overnight in a single block trade.

This episode uses that blowup as the lens for a much bigger story: how a three-quarters-of-a-trillion-dollar hyperscaler spending pledge is propping up U.S. GDP growth, why OpenAI just quietly cut prices as “tokenmaxxing” dies and Chinese labs undercut on cost, why Mark Zuckerberg picked a fight with OpenAI and Anthropic, how overleveraged Oracle has become, how the most profitable companies in the world are posting negative free cash flow, why hyperscaler bonds are going undersubscribed, and why the length of this year’s tech bond issuance is starting to crowd out the rest of the corporate debt market.

It closes with the 2008 parallel: mortgage-backed securities stacked into CDOs stacked into synthetic swaps, and how today’s version runs through corporate bonds, CLOs, hedge fund leverage, and private credit—with Treasuries as the eventual exit ramp when the unwind accelerates.