Trump and the Black Jelly Bean Theory.

The New York Fed released a troubling report detailing the risk of Collateralized Loan Obligation (CLO) exposure in the insurance industry. Over the past several years, private equity has taken larger and larger stakes in insurers who are historically risk averse. But now they’re acting more like hedge funds in their investment strategies and have more than $2 trillion in corporate debt exposure and nearly $300 billion of it is in mezzanine financing packaged much in the way mortgage backed securities (MBS) were in the run up to the Global Financial Crisis. Against the backdrop of persistent inflation, a renewed round of tariffs, elevated oil prices, the war in Iran and historic consumer debt, the economy is like a tinderbox. The jelly bean theory holds that you can only reach into the jar so many times before you eventually pick the black jelly bean. Apologies in advance to all those who like black licorice flavored jelly beans.