Quick Take: The Economy in Numbers.
Unemployment: Expected to remain at 3.6%. I’m writing this just before the report comes out, but analysts expect job openings to fall a bit, jobless claims to rise slightly and unemployment to remain unchanged. Private payrolls did come out, however, and were strong.
Q1 GDP Growth: 1.1%. Not great. Better than nothing. Fed rates are suppressing growth for sure. And speaking of the Fed...
Federal Funds Rate. Jerome Powell is still using an antiquated playbook to manage inflation in the economy, as the Fed tacked on another ¼ point to the Federal Funds Rate. The last time the rate was this high was in 2007. Anyone remember what happened next?
Oil. Something strange is happening in the crude oil market, though it might be temporary. Despite declining inventories (OPEC cuts plus increased demand from China), prices for crude oil have fallen slightly. I’ve said before that oil is less of a true commodity and more of a financial instrument, and I still expect prices to be driven higher by the investment banks who remain in search of yield. To wit, Goldman analysts are pushing a revised narrative saying they expect Brent crude to hit $100/b in the next 12 months. Why? Because they can.
OilPrice: Why Oil Prices Are Plunging Despite Falling Inventories
American Prestige: Sudan.
This week, 99 and I discussed the great work Danny and Derek continue to do over at American Prestige. We’re linking to an episode that provides a terrific overview of the conflict in Sudan. The episode features Joshua Craze, a writer and researcher specializing in Sudan. Derek guides the bulk of the conversation, and Craze does an impressive job of contextualizing the power struggle in Sudan in about a half hour special drop. One part that piqued my interest was how the IMF once again played a significant role in destabilizing the finances of the country with the same neoliberal formula that has caused so much harm to developing countries. It’s a fast and informative episode that I highly recommend from April 28.
American Prestige: Special - The Sudan Crisis w/ Joshua Craze
Fox Carrier Negotiation.
Media Matters has been doing some excellent reporting on leaks regarding the negotiation between Fox News and several cable providers. It’s pretty fascinating stuff that we’re going to incorporate into this weekend’s episode, so I wanted to give a quick primer on it. Essentially, right now, if you have cable, it’s pretty much a guarantee that you send Fox a couple bucks a month directly. They’ve had such a strong negotiating hand for years, which is why their market penetration is so utterly dominant. But there’s trouble brewing. Again, we’ll go into further detail, but for now I’ll share a link as a primer.
Media Matters: Fox News Wants A Massive Increase In Its Cable Fees — Which Will Be Paid For By All Cable Subscribers
Unf*cker Comment of the Week:
C-Sue: “Shout out to 'Best of the Left,' who recommended your podcast to me, and now I'm binging all episodes in no particular order. I'd like to commend 99 for addressing Max's "fucking a porn star" comment in the episode 87 show notes as inappropriate. Sex Workers, including porn stars, provide essential services in many realms. They are important in our society, undervalued, hard working, overlooked and often unappreciated except by their clients/viewers/customers. 99 - you are my hero!”