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UNFTR Weekly Roundup

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Max Notes

Blackrocked

BlackRock’s private‑credit scare is the logical outcome of a decade‑long experiment in “democratizing” risky finance, and it rhymes uncomfortably with the way Wall Street sold stock‑market speculation to small investors a century ago.

 

In the last few days, BlackRock has had to slam the brakes on withdrawals from its $26 billion HPS Corporate Lending Fund, a non‑traded BDC that makes private loans to companies. Investors asked for redemptions equal to about 9.3% of the fund—roughly $1.2 billion—in a single quarterly window, but the product’s design only allows 5% of shares to be bought back each quarter, so BlackRock paid out about $620 million and told everyone else to wait in line.

 

To be clear, the brakes on withdrawals are a feature of this type of investment. On the term sheet of this product the 5% cap is stated in the prospectus so it’s a case of “buyer beware.” These lock-up products are intended for savvy investors with deep pockets and a higher risk appetite. But this gets to the heart of the idea of democratization and the downside of allowing investors to pile into risky investments that are designed to tie up funds for a longer horizon. No one gives a shit about the wealthy investor who takes a haircut in a leveraged debt product where success is designed to extract higher rates from a wide pool of corporate borrowers. But if the average retail investor is encouraged to lock up their hard-earned savings, then it becomes more than a risk.

 

The reason private credit is having a moment in the sun is because issues with it keep popping up in high profile places like BlackRock’s vast portfolio. The whole pitch around this and sister products has been that ordinary affluent savers—wealth‑management clients, upper‑middle‑class households—shouldn’t be “locked out” of the juicy returns that pension funds and endowments enjoy in private credit. The language is populist: broader access, leveling the playing field, giving “the average investor” a shot at institutional‑grade strategies. That’s the same register Wall Street used in the 1920s to sell mass stock ownership as “shareholder democracy”—universal ownership of corporate stock as proof that capitalism was for everyone, not just the plutocrats.

 

The catch is that what gets democratized isn’t just upside; it’s exposure to products whose risks and liquidity constraints were easier to manage when they lived inside big, boring institutions with long time horizons. In a pension fund, private loans are one sleeve of a giant portfolio. In your brokerage app or your adviser’s “alternative income” model, they might be a big chunk of your savings.

 

If you go back to the 1920s, the rhetoric is eerily familiar. Corporations, brokers, and the New York Stock Exchange promoted “shareholder democracy” and the “democratization of investment” as civic virtues, insisting that ordinary Americans should own a piece of the country’s industrial future. Ads boasted about the rising number of small shareholders, academics like Harold Carver wrote about a new “proprietorship” in which wealth would be more widely shared, and the press pumped out stories of teachers and shopkeepers striking it rich on Wall Street.

 

The dark side of that democratization was margin. Brokers let small investors buy stocks with 10% down, borrowing the rest against the securities, a practice defenders sold as a way to open the market to people who didn’t have large piles of cash lying around. Figures like Charles Mitchell of National City Bank cast margin credit as a tool to democratize ownership, while critics like Senator Carter Glass (yes, that Glass of Glass-Steagall) warned that using the nation’s credit system to fuel leveraged speculation for the masses was dangerous and illegitimate. When prices fell, those same small investors were the ones wiped out by margin calls and forced liquidations.

 

The point isn’t that broad participation in capital markets is inherently bad. It’s that democratization became the sales pitch for increasingly complex and fragile structures, with ordinary households absorbing risks they didn’t fully understand and weren’t protected against when the cycle turned. A century later, you can swap “margin account” for “non‑traded BDC,” “target‑date fund with alternatives,” or “semi‑liquid private credit,” and the pattern is the same: promise everyone a seat at the table, then design the fine print so the exits are smallest for the people least able to afford a loss.

 

If you want to spot a bad idea, look at who’s promoting it the most. For example, the Trump White House is leaning hard into this old formula. Take the “Trump Accounts” for newborns: the administration’s signature family‑finance idea seeds an IRA‑like investment account with a $1,000 federal deposit for every baby born between 2025 and 2028, with parents allowed to contribute up to $5,000 a year and employers up to $2,500. On the surface, it’s framed as a patriotic wealth‑building plan, a way to ensure every child has a stake in America’s prosperity from day one. But as we’ve uncovered, this is just a way to reward those who have the ability to match funds in the program and to give Wall Street another pool of low maintenance accounts that produce management fees.

 

In parallel, Trump signed a 2025 executive order pushing the Labor Department and SEC to encourage more “alternative” investments—private equity, private credit, and other private‑market vehicles—inside 401(k) plans. That order explicitly says the policy of the United States is that every worker saving for retirement should have access to funds that invest in alternatives, echoing the same democratization refrain: if the rich and the pension funds can have it, why can’t you? Asset managers like BlackRock have responded by designing target‑date funds that tuck 5%–20% of assets into private investments.

 

Supporters say this is about closing the return gap between ordinary savers and institutions. Critics like Elizabeth Warren point out that private markets come with weaker transparency, higher fees, and aggressive performance claims—and that regulators have a spotty record of protecting retirement savers from complex products. Essentially, the same firms promoting “democratized” access to private credit and equity are now being invited, by executive order, into the core of the retirement system, with the blessing of a White House that treats financial complexity as a kind of patriotic opportunity.

 

Like everything else on Wall Street, everything looks rosy during the good times. Your grandmother is a phenom at picking stocks. Your niece is paying her way through grad school with crypto gains. Everyone’s risk appetite increases while protections and regulations decrease. And eventually, nature runs its course and the downside comes-a-knocking. So here we are. Risk is being pushed down the social ladder, dressed up as opportunity, and delivered through products that will only show their true nature when ordinary households most need liquidity. You may ask yourself. Where is that large automobile? Same as it ever was. Same as it ever was.

Other things I’m obsessing over…

  • Markwayne Mullin is off to a terrific start as the potential head of DHS. If he can just nail down whether we’re at war or not.

  • As 99 and I were saying on this week’s edition of Omnibus…I don’t buy this guy’s bullshit routine anymore. You made a contract with a customer named the Department of War. Enough said. You’re part of the problem, Dario. Even if Claude is an amazing product.

  • Another point awarded to AI detractor Ed Zitron and those who have been calling the bubble. Oracle and OpenAI are withdrawing plans on that massive TX data center.

  • Strange framing. Lindsey Graham wants Iran “on its knees” so we can “blow their people.” My my.

-Max

Killer Left Take of the Week

KLTW goes to El from House of El offering a prime example of global interconnectedness and how an irresponsible move like, I don’t know, starting an illegal war with one of the world’s largest oil producing states in the world might have wide consequences this administration didn’t fucking contemplate because everything is done by the seat of their pants…I digress. El taps into a theme we’ve been touching on for the past year as Japan is starting to pivot away from “US Client State” behavior that has benefitted both the U.S. and global traders. Japan’s dependence on Middle Eastern crude oil means it has to look elsewhere for supply, and in the meantime, a prolonged spike in crude oil prices threatens to undermine the BOJ project to supercharge growth.

 

Watch: Japan to DUMP $1.2T in US Treasuries After Trump Cuts 95% Oil Supply

Chart of the Week

This week’s chart tracks something called the WTI calendar spread, which is just the price difference between oil delivered soon and oil delivered later. When this line is above zero, the front‑month contract is more expensive than later months and the market is in backwardation—traders are paying up for barrels now because they see near‑term tightness. When it drops below zero, later‑dated contracts are more expensive and the market is in contango, which usually signals comfortable supply and a bigger role for storage costs.

 

In plain English, traders aren’t just betting on “where oil is,” they’re betting on whether today’s spike sticks around or fades. When near‑term contracts are more expensive than longer‑dated ones, we call that “backwardation;” when future contracts are more expensive than today’s, that’s “contango.” Backwardation usually means “tight now, looser later,” while contango usually means “plenty now, maybe tighter or costlier down the road.”

The chart tracks WTI crude oil futures prices (red line, right axis) alongside the calendar spread between forward and spot prices (cyan area, left axis) from 2017 to 2026, showing futures prices spiking above $120/barrel in 2022 before declining, while the spread experienced extreme volatility during the 2020 COVID crisis and has recently moved into negative territory. The negative spread in 2026 indicates the market has shifted into backwardation, where near-term oil contracts trade at a premium to future deliveries.

Source: MacroMicro

 

What you see here is the spread sitting in clear backwardation: front‑month WTI is trading at a premium to barrels further out on the curve. That tells us the market sees the Iran shock mostly as a near‑term squeeze, not a permanent new regime. If, over the next few weeks, this line stays high or pushes further up, traders are still betting on a short, sharp crunch; if it falls back toward zero or flips negative into contango, that’s the market voting that the worst of the disruption is likely to be short‑lived.

 

The reason this matters is that the calendar spread is a built‑in bullshit detector for headlines about “oil shock” and “new era” pricing. If, over the next few weeks, you see backwardation steepen—front‑month prices pulling further above later months—that’s the market voting for a short, sharp crunch where everyone wants barrels now. If, instead, the whole curve lifts and flattens at high levels, with later contracts catching up to the front, that’s a sign traders think the war’s effects will drag on and seep into everything from freight costs to inflation. So this one spread is your real‑time gauge of whether Wall Street thinks the Iran shock is a scare or a new baseline.

Headlines

Holding Several Thoughts on Iran Simultaneously

It’s difficult to disentangle war narratives, especially in the United States. I’ve been on the lookout for clear-eyed analyses on the war against Iran that neither diminishes the ugliness of the Iranian ruling class nor absolves Israel and U.S. involvement in the unfolding atrocities. This is one of those pieces. They are few and far between…

 

From the article:

“Abroad, fantasies of monarchist restoration have resurfaced with predictable speed. Yet credibility in democratic politics rests not on nostalgia but on accountability. As the U.S.–Israeli bombardment kills Iranian civilians, royalist voices reduce the dead to abstract ‘casualties,’ even as their public condolences are directed primarily toward Western soldiers targeted in the subsequent escalation. Such asymmetry does not inspire confidence in a democratic future. Authority cannot be improvised on social media, nor built on reactive indignation. Nor can it be delivered from abroad. No airstrike constructs labor unions, builds councils, or creates independent media. No foreign power can manufacture the dense networks of trust required for durable democratic life.”

 

Dissent Magazine: War, Revolt, and Iran’s Unfinished Struggle

 

Markwayne to the rescue? Ugh.

The dumbass senator about to lead DHS might hold the key to fixing FEMA: giving it up. There’s a movement to strip FEMA out from under DHS’ purview to put some of the pieces back together before hurricane season.

 

From the article:

“If confirmed as the new DHS secretary, Senator Mullin’s approach to FEMA will face extreme scrutiny from judges and lawmakers. A bipartisan group in the House of Representatives is pushing a bill that would extricate the agency from DHS, giving it full cabinet-level status. New leadership at DHS might also increase the pressure on Trump to appoint a permanent FEMA administrator.”

 

Grist: Kristi Noem all but killed FEMA. Will her departure save it?

 

ProFuckingPublica, Baby

ProPublica is hosting a public information forum on how best to use their new searchable database on Trump officials and their financial ties. You can register here.

 

From the article:

“We’re publishing this information to give the public an important glimpse into the financial ties of a powerful and often hidden cadre of presidential appointees within the federal bureaucracy.”

 

ProPublica: Explore Financial Disclosures From President Trump and 1,500 of His Appointees

Resources

Pod Love

“Derek and his guest Esfandyar Batmanghelidj discuss the economic consequences of the Iran war and its implications for the Gulf and the global economy. They discuss Iran’s strikes on Gulf infrastructure, disruptions to shipping and energy routes through the Strait of Hormuz, risks to logistics hubs like Dubai and Doha, rising oil prices, the vulnerability of global supply chains, and the potential long-term economic impact of the conflict on the Gulf.”

 

American Prestige: War in the Gulf and the Global Economy w/ Esfandyar Batmanghelidj

 

Book Love

This one comes from longtime listener and friend Robert “Bobby McD” McDermott, a Dublin-based professor and author. 

 

“Given the circumstances this might be worth giving a shout out. It’s an incredibly moving, often troubling, often funny, but ultimately honest portrayal of growing from childhood to early adulthood under the Theocrats in Iran after the Revolution of 1979. It covers some of the politics, the coup of 1953 to install the Shah, for example, but mostly it’s a coming-of-age story with real heart.”

 

Persepolis by Marjane Satrapi

 

Unf*cker Comment of the Week

I’m feeling the vibes here.

From @you_are_soul:

“Lights up a vape and settles in for my favourite update.”

Progressive Corner

Progressive Organization of the Week:

Pesticide Action Network.

 

“Pesticide Action Network (PAN) North America strives to create a just, healthy, and equitable food system by replacing hazardous pesticides with ecologically sound and socially just alternatives. It works with those on the frontlines to tackle the pesticide problem and reclaim the future of food and farming.”

 

Check Out the UNFTR Directory of Progressive Resources for More

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